Odds

Accuscore's Premier League Season 2017/2018 Preview

One of the most followed football leagues in the world, UK’s top tier Premier League, is gearing up for the new season. First games are played this weekend and there’s once again plenty of excitement in the air. If last season saw a return to somewhat normal marching order, with Chelsea on top and the regulars in top six, this season should prove not that much different.

Close to a billion pounds already spent on the transfer market, Premier League has attracted some of the brightest starts in the footballing world. Manchester City splashed the cash on Monaco stars Benjamin Mendy and Bernardo Silva, while Chelsea bolstered their squad with Tiemoue Bakayoko and Alvaro Morata. Even Arsenal dipped into the pool, with acquisition of Alexandre Lacazette from Lyon.

It’s predicted by most bookmakers that this year is the year of Pep, with Manchester City’s odds to win the title hovering at around 2.80 | +180 | 9/5. Next in line stand Chelsea, looking for their third title in four seasons, Manchester United, heading to their 2nd season under the tender guidance of Jose Mourinho and Tottenham, who were already so close last year with their home-grown talent. Completing the top-6 are, as usual, Arsenal and Liverpool.

A massive leap in the title odds follows, as outside the top-6 only Everton receives odds under 100.00, with approx. 80.00. Mid-table is stacked from Leicester’s 200.00 and West Ham’s 500.00 to Stoke’s and Bournemouth’s 1000.00. At the bottom, the competition is as fierce as up top. Newly promoted Huddersfield and Brighton are joined by Burnley, Watford and Swansea – all receiving odds of 2.00 | +100 | 2 or smaller.

With the bookmakers playing it safe, it’s up to more precise analytics to take place and boldly predicting how the season is going to wrap up. Accuscore simulation engine has provided excellent results in individual games – so why not see how the whole season simulation would play out.

Here we can see the simulated league table at the end of the season, as well as projected points and how the final position of the team in Accuscore simulations compares to bookmaker average:

Accuscore

Team

Points

Bookers

Difference

Title odds

1.

Tottenham Hotspur

91

4.

+3

11.00

2.

Manchester United

83

3.

+1

5.00

3.

Chelsea

83

2.

-1

4.50

4.

Manchester City

78

1.

-3

2.88

5.

Arsenal

72

6.

+1

13.00

6.

Leicester City

64

8.

+2

301.00

7.

Liverpool

64

5.

-2

14.00

8.

West Ham United

54

10.

+2

501.00

9.

Southampton

53

9.

0

501.00

10.

Everton

47

7.

-3

81.00

11.

Crystal Palace

45

13.

+2

1001.00

12.

AFC Bournemouth

45

14.

+2

1001.00

13.

Brighton

42

19.

+6

1501.00

14.

W.B.A

40

16.

+2

1001.00

15.

Stoke City

38

12.

-3

1001.00

16.

Newcastle United

38

11.

-5

751.00

17.

Huddersfield Town

35

20.

+3

2501.00

18.

Burnley

31

17.

-1

2001.00

19.

Swansea City

26

15.

-4

1001.00

20.

Watford

23

18.

-2

2501.00

 

Any surprises? As usual, the Premier League is extremely competitive and there’s no such thing as a certain win. However, the winner with odds of more than 10.00 is next to unheard of – if it weren’t for Leicester two years back. Here’s a more detailed look at a couple of surprises, compared to the bookmakers valuation.

Positive surprises

Tottenham Hotspur, 1st with 91 points – Mauricio Pochettino has made remarkable strides with a team that used to be all topsy-turvy. The trend is upwards and last season they came close – couple of unexpected losses here and there ended up costing them the title. The team remains mostly the same, although there’s still money in the bank for acquisitions. Their core players are young, but not so inexperienced anymore and they know the system through and through. Only small improvements are needed to make the Spurs finally lift the Premier League trophy and this is the year they go all the way.

Leicester, 6th with 64 points – After the sensational title two years back, the Foxes were dumped back to reality last season with success and continental football taking its toll. Despite being able to hang on to their core players, except for Ngolo Kante who went to win it again with Chelsea, Leicester was only a shadow of their past self, which led to the untimely firing of Claudio Ranieri. The first full season under the guidance of Craig Shakespeare might return Leicester to battle with the big boys: most of the championship winning team is still intact, key players well rested (including Kasper Schmeichel) and the system introduced by Ranieri is still working. Now Leicester’s former champions have a chip on their shoulder to show it was not just a fluke and they’ve also added a couple of potential pivotal players in Kelechi Iheanacho, Vicente Iborra and Harry Maguire. Europe is the target and we believe they’ll make it!

Brighton, 13th with 42 points – Newly promoted Brighton is deemed by many to go back down right away, but we disagree. Brighton is one of the Championship teams built to last with the big boys. Chris Hughton knows what it takes to stay out of relegation zone and the club made a bold statement by acquiring highly regarded midfielder Davy Pröpper from PSV as well as Valencia’s no.1 keeper, Australian international Mathew Ryan. Ingolstad’s duo Pascal Gross and Markus Suttner bring in wealth of experience, while the current core is easily capable of holding their own. Even in Premier League.

Disappointments

Liverpool, 7th with 64 points – Only a goal difference keeps Liverpool out of top-6 in Accuscore simulations, but especially for the Kop faithful the sixth would be a disappointment. Jürgen Klopp’s ongoing project seems to have somewhat stalled – especially in the transfer market. Additions of Andrew Robertson from Hull City and Mohamed Salah from Fiorentina were a step to a right direction, but the defense still looks vulnerable and the team is still missing the prolific scorer up front – unless Daniel Sturridge stays healthy for the whole ten yards. In addition the rumor mill is taking Philippe Coutinho, by far the most integral cog of Liverpool’s offense, to Barcelona and there seems to be no replacement on sight. With a couple of hopefuls surging into the top-6, Liverpool seems to be the odd man out.

Everton, 10th with 47 points – Not a good year for Merseyside teams. Everton shed the reputation of solely being a selling team in the transfer market by bringing in players for some £60M. However, 25 goals scored went away in form of Romelu Lukaku, which might prove to be a problem. Sandro Ramirez and Wayne Rooney have big enough boots to fill – especially with Yannick Bolasie likely out until Christmas. Defense is solid, unless any of the key players get injured and Ronald Koeman has all the tools available to bring success to Merseyside, but this season comes too soon with Euro-games mixing up the deck as well.