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Odds

Liverpool favorites, the usual suspects challenging

 

The Champions League is back with a blast with 16 teams remaining in the most prestigious competition in European football. The coveted prize was won last year by Liverpool, who are the favorites to repeat their feat this season – they’ve gone undefeated in their domestic league for longer than a calendar year and seem to be unbeatable at the moment. The challengers are hungry though, especially with their domestic trophy cupboards full or already out of reach. By using Accuscore’s simulation engine, we can predict which teams are most likely to win and hoist the trophy on May 30th in Istanbul.

It’s worth keeping in mind that the pairs will be drawn randomly from the quarter final stages onward, so it is impossible to make a bracket based on anything else but assumptions. Therefore for the Accuscore Team Rankings we have simulated all the teams against all the teams until the end to figure out the most likely winner and the probabilities of different clubs Champions League title.

RANK

TEAM

ACCUSCORE ODDS

WIN %

BOOKMAKER ODDS

1

Liverpool 

6.75

14.8

+450 | 5.50 (1.)

 

The holders are favored to win it again. They are unbeaten in EPL for more than a year now and are at least as good a team they were last season. It’s up for the others to put up a better fight than last season.

2

PSG

8.25

12.1

+750 | 8.50 (4.)

 

Always up there, but never quite there. It’s time for PSG to make a push. They have some of the best players in the world and now the team is better balanced – there are work horses and fighters in addition to immense talent.

3

Bayern München

8.25

12.1

+700 | 8.00 (3.)

 

The team is as talented as any challengers and changes in management have done good in shaking somewhat stale things up. They have been so close in the past, now there’s a great opportunity to go all the way.

4

Manchester City

9.00

11.11

+430 | 5.30 (2.)

 

Will Pep Guardiola complete his swansong at the helm of City. Possibly the last chance to do so and the team is fantastic. Injuries and form might be an issue, as well as facing Real on the first round. Otherwise, City is all-in.

5

Juventus

10.25

9.75

+1050 | 11.50 (6.)

 

Ronaldo being better than ever, the regular UCL challenger has talented yet somewhat aging squad with some raw talent supporting. Not overly impressive in Serie A, they’re still leading. A push for UCL title is at hand.

6

Barcelona

11.00

9.00

+750 | 8.50 (5.)

 

Problematic start of the season, sacking the winning manager and injuries have hindered Barca from favorite to challenger. Still a talented group and if Setien gets his message through and they stay healthy, Barca will challenge.

7

Real Madrid

11.00

9.00

+1400 | 15.00 (7.)

 

Some issues to start the season, but Zidane is doing what he does best. Not quite as immensely talented team as usual, but still enough to make a push with the old core leading young newcomers. Definite dark horse in the race.

8

RB Leipzig

19.00

5.25

+3300 | 34.00 (8.)

 

Built very much from scratch, the team has been phenomenal in Bundesliga, challenging Bayern and Dortmund up top. Young, raw talent with a couple of mentors, similar to Ajax setup last year. With nothing to lose, could go far.

9

Tottenham

20.00

5.00

+3500 | 36.00 (9.)

 

Downhill from last season’s final, Pochettino gone and Mourinho in. They’ve looked somewhat better lately, but missing Harry Kane up front is a blow. Not quite as good as last year, but Mourinho can cook up something special.

10

Atletico Madrid

32.00

3.13

+4000 | 41.00 (10.)

 

Griezmann’s departure hurt more than was thought – Atletico can’t score anymore. It’s been an issue all season and they are as good as ever defensively. Hard to see them beating any big boys by fighting 0-0 battles.

11

Dortmund

32.00

3.13

+5000 | 51.00 (11.)

 

One of the interesting teams to watch with a massive amount of young talent and dynamic style. Unlikely to be able to contend with the bigger clubs, but might put up a challenge early on by individual efforts.

12

Atalanta

63.00

1.59

+6600 | 67.00 (13.)

 

The spark-plug of Serie A, all-out-attack-Atalanta will cause a stir in UCL. Not very structured team is as likely to fall apart as it is to score five goals a game, but they have nothing to lose and will go for the jugular. All.The.Time.

13

Valencia

75.00

1.33

+10000 | 101.00 (14.)

 

Close to a disastrous season domestically (9th), Valencia are unlikely to revisit UCL next year. The current visit is likely short as well, although the first round draw was rather favorable. Lacking in all aspects, only outsiders.

14

Chelsea

80.00

1.25

+5000 | 51.00 (12.)

 

Transfer ban and uncertain UCL spot for next year – no new players. Young team with a lot of potential and Frank Lampard has done decent job. Still, problems in EPL and thin squad for UCL will be too much to contend.

15

Napoli

150.00

0.67

+10000 | 101.00 (15.)

 

Another disaster domestically, Napoli has fallen fast despite sacking managers and making changes. Their structure is in shambles and even with a couple of star caliber players, the games seem lost before they start.

16

Lyon

200.00

0.50

+30000 | 301.00 (16.)

 

It was supposed to be the season Lyon challenges PSG – they’re now 11th. Group of talented individuals with no common goal or spirit, going all-in for UCL is their only remedy. Look for attack, attack, attack from start to finish.

 

 

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