NFL Week 6: Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins

Accuscore’s analysis on the NFL matchup between Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins differs from the assessment made by Vegas sportbooks. Chicago heads into this matchup following a bye week, with Miami entering the matchup after a disappointing 27-17 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. 

Let's take a closer look at where's the value at in this game. 

Vegas Odds

Team to Win

Miami Dolphins: 2.45 

Chicago Bears: 1.56


Miami Dolphins -2.5: 2.68

Chicago Bears +2.5: 1.48


Over 42.5: 1.98

Under 42.5: 1.83


What to Watch For

Movement: There was some early activity to start the week on the home 3-point underdogs. There's been some movement up to Bears -3.5 and down to Bears -2.5, depending on when and where you're getting the line. 

Key Betting Trend: Since 2003, home underdogs who have lost their last two consecutive games have covered the spread 43 percent of the time.

X-Factor: Keep an eye on both special teams here, with these two having the No. 5 and No. 6-ranked special teams in the league. Guys like Tarik Cohen or Jakeem Grant could be the difference in this game. Miami punter Matt Haack will have to make sure to have an error-free game. 

Pass-Heavy: Miami doesn't have much of a running game to depend on, and Chicago currently has the third-best run defense in the league (DVOA) -- Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill better be ready for quite the performance if he want to lose three in a row. 


Analyst's Pick

Miami +3.5

Odds -- at 2.45 -- indicate Miami has a 40-to-41 percent chance to to win this game. They win over 52 percent of AccuScore simulations, suggesting quite a bit of side value on the pick. Miami covering is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. Dolphins cover a 3.5-point spread in over 62 percent of simulations.