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LA Chargers Vs. Denver Broncos: Week 11 NFL Analyst Picks

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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LA Chargers vs Denver Broncos: NFL Week 11 Analyst Picks

We've got an AFC West showdown this weekend as the LA Chargers get set to host the Denver Broncos at StubHub Center in Carson, CA.

Let's take a closer look at where's the value at in this game.

Vegas Odds
Spread
Los Angeles Chargers -7

Total
46

Top NFL Trends:
• All Spread & Totals Picks Last 2 seasons: +7070
• 2018 Spread Picks (After Week 10): 83-57-8, 59.3% +2030
• 2018 Totals Picks (After Week 10): 82-58-8, 58.6% +1820
2018 Spread and Totals Picks (Every game): +3850
All NFL Week 11 Expert Picks

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What to Watch For

Movement: The Chargers opened up as 7-point favorites and there has been very little movement on the spread so far this week. One book had it drop to 6 and 6.5 for a day, but most books have it at -7 for the Chargers at the time of publication.

Public Betting: At the time of publication, the Chargers are getting 74% of bets; some heavy money has to have come in on Denver, though, to keep the spread at 7.

ATS Betting Trend: The Chargers head into this week's matchup on a 6-game win streak. Rivers -- since 2003 -- is 21-15 against the spread (ATS) after a win the previous week out. According to Action Network, this makes Rivers the second-most profitable QB in the league after a win.

Betting on the Total: The last five meetings between these two sides have hit the UNDER when playing in San Diego and Los Angeles. The UNDER is also 5-2-1 in Denver's last eight overall.

AccuScore sims, however, are going against recent trends, suggesting a pick on the OVER. The OVER is a four-star (out of four) hot trend pick.

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Free Analyst's Pick: Chargers vs Broncos

Denver to cover and keep it close.

Denver covering a 7-point spread is a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. The Broncos cover the spread in 58 percent of AccuScore simulations. On average, Denver loses by three-to-four points in the sims.