Odds

March Madness 2018 Free Preview: Virginia Tech vs Alabama

East: Virginia T (8) - Alabama (9)

Back to March Madness 2018 Free Previews listing

 

The Virginia Tech Hokies (21-11) trip to ACC tournament was quickly over. They lost first game to Notre Dame and went home packing. Moreover, last weeks of the season wasn’t so good as the team hoped. Only five wins out of last ten games, but wins over Virginia, Duke and Clemson during this span show that there is quite a bit potential in Virginia Tech’s team. So far they have had quick trips to the final tournament (1986, 1996, 2007 and 2017) once a decade, but this is the first back to back appearance in the tournament.

 

Alabama (19-15) returns to final tournament after six years. Their best result was in 2004 when they reached the Elite eight round. Even though they finished this regular season with only 3 wins out of last 10 games, they beat Texas A&M and Auburn in SEC tournament before got beaten by Kentucky. The 19-15 record is not very impressive among other teams in the final tournament, but like the Hokies, the Crimson Tide has wins over good teams (Tennessee, Florida, Oklahoma) that participate to final tournament as well. 

 

Accuscore’s 10000 simulations show Virginia Tech as the favorite for this game. Their win probability is 61.3%. Vegas odds present the Hokies as the favorite as well with odds -125 (55.5%) and there is good value when comparing this to simulations probabilities. Simulations also generate top player projections for the game, which show that Alabama’s Collin Sexton will be the best scorer of the game, but that might not be enough for a win.

 

PTS: Collin Sexton 17.2, Justin Robinson 15.4

ASSISTS: Tevin Mack 4.2, Justin Robinson 5.8

REBOUNDS: Braxton Key 5.4, Chris Clarke 6.6

 

Teams ranked to 8th and 9th in their region usually don’t have too great probabilities to win the tournament. Based on Accuscore tournament simulations both team’s chances to win it all are very slim. This is backed up by Vegas odds that are +30000 for both teams to win the tournament. Even though the odds are high, the probabilities are lower for any value for either of the teams. Round by round probabilities for both teams can be seen below:

 

TEAMNAME

REGION

SEED

FINAL32

FINAL16

FINAL8

FINALFOUR

FINALTWO

CHAMP

Virginia Tech

EAST

8

62.01%

12.83%

4.84%

1.53%

0.45%

0.11%

Alabama

EAST

9

37.99%

7.44%

2.84%

0.79%

0.21%

0.06%

 

Detailed game preview please check Accuscore.