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March Madness 2018 Free Preview: Michigan vs Montana

West: Michigan (3) - Montana (14)

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Michigan (28-7) starts NCAA final tournament trophy hunting with 9 games winning streak and as a Big Ten tournament champions. Their only NCAA basketball championship came 1989 and the last time when they reached the final was five years ago in 2013 when they lost to Louisville. Mortiz Wagner has been their best scorer (14.5 PPG) and on the top of the rebound statistics (7.1 RPG).

 

Montana (26-7) hasn’t been so frequent visitor in NCAA final tournament. The last appearance within the top 64 teams of the nation was 2013 and their best ever tournament was 1975 when they reached sweet sixteen. This year they finished regular season with six wins and the Big Sky tournament champion. Ahmaad Rorie has scored on average 17.2 points per game and has been team’s best passer with 3.7 assists per game.

 

Accuscore has simulated this matchup 10000 times and Michigan is a clear favorite to continue to the second round. The Wolverines have 75% probability to win the Grizzlies. However, Vegas lines for a Michigan win is showing their even bigger favorite with odds of -665 (87%). Like earlier this season, Mortiz Wagner and Ahmaad Rorie would be the top players. Player projections for the best performance are following:

 

PTS: Ahmaad Rorie 14.5, Moritz Wagner 13.8

ASSISTS: Ahmaad Rorie 3.5, Zavier Simpson 4.4

REBOUNDS: Jamar Akoh 5.6, Moritz Wagner 5.7

 

What are the chances to reach next rounds? Based on Accuscore simulations Michigan belongs to top 10 teams to win the whole tournament. Their chances are just below 4% and when comparing this number to Vegas tournament odds of +3000, there is good value to bet the Wolverines to win whole tournament. See round by round probabilities for both teams below:

 

 

TEAMNAME

REGION

SEED

FINAL32

FINAL16

FINAL8

FINALFOUR

FINALTWO

CHAMP

Michigan

WEST

3

75.63%

47.11%

28.13%

16.83%

7.75%

3.79%

Montana

WEST

14

24.37%

5.77%

1.12%

0.22%

0.01%

0.00%

 

Detailed game preview please check Accuscore.