Written by AccuScore Staff
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Arizona is out, the Pac-12 is in ruins and day two of the madness promises more upsets and shockers. There are a few games in particular that AccuScore thinks are worth keeping an eye on because the computer simply doesn’t agree with Vegas.
Friday’s Free Pick: Arkansas over Butler – Moneyline
Arkansas is the no. 7 seed, while the Butler Bulldogs are 1.5 point favorites as the no. 12 seed according to Las Vegas. Well, this is one case where AccuScore thinks Vegas is wrong. Vegas says that Arkansas only has a 46.5% chance of winning, while the computer thinks that number should be closer to 55.3%, so there is 8.8% side value on picking the Razorbacks to justify their seeding. Likewise, the computer calculates Arkansas wins outright or loses by 1 in 58.9% of simulations.
AccuScore has expert picks against the spread and totals for every single tournament game: College Basketball Picks
The play here, though, is to take Arkansas on the moneyline at +114.
In addition, this game also has a hot trends 4-star pick on the Totals. With the line at 151.5, the computer thinks this game will go over, with 54% of AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations going OVER
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1: Nevada over Texas on the Moneyline: Again, Vegas believes in the lower seed, while AccuScore thinks the selection committee got the seeding correct. AccuScore calculates that Nevada is 55.3% to win straight up, while the odds suggest Nevada is 48.5% to win. There’s value on the moneyline here.