Odds

MLB Postseason 2018: Dodgers vs Brewers - Game 1

The NLCS gets going this Friday as the Los Angeles Dodgers head to Miller Park for a matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers. L.A. advanced to the NLCS after defeating the Atlanta Braves 3 games to 1 in the opening round, while the Brewers enter the series after a sweep of the Colorado Rockies. 

Let's take a closer look at where the value's at in this match. 

Vegas Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)

  • Milwaukee Brewers: 2.42
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: 1.62

Spread  

  • Milwaukee Brewers -1.5: 3.89
  • Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5: 1.25 
  • Milwaukee Brewers +1.5: 1.75
  • Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5: 2.05

Total 

  • Over 7.5: 2.10
  • Under 7.5: 1.81

What to Watch For 

Betting on the Total: The OVER is 3-0-1 in Kershaw's last five starts against NL Central opponents.

The average score after 10,000 simulations is 4.8 – 4.0, in favor of the Dodgers.

Dodgers' Pitching: The Dodgers have now won 25 of their last 32 games when allowing five runs or less, and that's definitely in play when Clayton Kershaw's on the mound. In the NLDS, the Dodgers posted a 2.06 ETA with 32 batters struck out in 35 innings.


Well-Rested: Milwaukee -- following a sweep of Colorado -- is slightly more rested heading into this matchup. They finished off the sweep with a 6-0 win in the series finale, so all momentum is clearly on the home side.


Head-to-Head: These two sides met head-to-head in seven games in 2018. The Dodgers won four of those seven games, most recently winning 21-5 at home on Aug. 2, 2018. 

 

Pitching Matchup

The Dodgers will start the series with ace pitcher Clayton Kershaw up first. L.A. is 4-1 in Kershaw's last five games vs NL Central opponents. 

For the Brewers, ex-Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez gets the nod to start in Game 1. He has played this postseason, but his overall ERA in 26 1/3 innings is 4.78. 

Analyst's Pick

There’s no side value pick in this game, as the odds match Accuscore’s simulations almost precisely. However, the simulation total of 8.8 runs is high enough to justify going for OVER 7.5 TOTAL RUNS